Fuelling The Crisis?

A World War Two poster issued by the Information Ministry around the time of the Blitz is now re-doing the rounds on t-shirts, coffee mugs and even duvet covers. It reads very simply: ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’. Some things never go out of fashion. Compare that with the conflicting messaging coming out of the UK Government last week on possible petrol shortages even before a strike had been called.

The tanker driver issue has been bubbling on for over a year, so following classic crisis theory, Ministers should have known and been prepared. It's called 'horizon scanning'; an early warning system of problems ahead. There should also have been a unified management plan with agreed communication objectives, delivery system and of course, key messages.

Strategic Defense review won't fly!

Every organisation understands the importance of an effective strategy and that one of the key indicators of crises is the failure to meet its stakeholders expectations. As reports from Libya signal a rapidly deteriorating situation where protest dissolves into a civil war, the role of the British Armed forces and the Coalition's defence strategy is brought into stark focus.

Following the strategic review which seems to have been neither strategic or about the UK’s defence can we really feel that the Coalition approach to defence is providing support to businesses trying to deliver export growth to the UK in difficult parts of the world. Think of the emerging risks not just to Libya but to the Arabian Gulf states and North Africa, both during current events and going forward as nations struggle to find stability. How much further can this spread? What other opportunities to resolve old conflicts may arise? Where are the new safe havens for pirates?

A Tale of Three Cities

Handling a crisis relies on understanding the issues, recognizing future impacts and responding appropriately. So who is taking the lead in the Middle East?

No doubt who was first off the blocks in fronting up to the crisis in North Africa and the Middle East. Step forward UK PM David Cameron who flew out from London to take part in what used to be called shuttle diplomacy. First a photo opportunity in Takrir Square, followed by a meeting with the new military caretaker government, then private meetings with some of the protestors who were described as inspirational. Except the Muslim Brotherhood, who seemed not to have been invited.

Easing off the accelerator

This could be the week of sticky pedals as Toyota and the Bank of England face the truth about what happens when you take your foot off the gas. Has the UK economy reached its cruising speed? And it is now all down hill to an economic recovery?

The question now in everyone's minds is how safe is it to ease off, is the timing right and what happens if it starts to unravel? Will the economy continue to accelerate or will the brakes cut in?

No Grit for the Oyster

No war plan ever survived the first hour of battle, according to Clausewitz. So where was he when you needed him?

The current situation serves to demonstrate how weak our politicians are at handling complex and overlapping issues. To which can now be added problems with forecasting.

Not down to us says the Met Office. All UK contingency planning is based on our five-day forecasts, “which are massively reliable.” Just so. And after that? With increasing regulatory demands ... careful about clearing your own pathway ... and political interference in energy supply, UK systems appear to be suffering from short term vision and a failure to achieve long term infrastructure improvement.

Dancing around the issues

With TV programmers looking to fill the entertainment slot left by Britain’s Got Talent, Prime Minister's Question Time from the Commons may provide the solution. As choreography goes it was a fine display yesterday with ministers manoeuvring around Gordon Brown. A variation of Strictly Come Dancing with partners voting themselves off the dance floor.

If only they moved as quickly to solve the crises they have created. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, “To lose one cabinet minister is unfortunate; to lose two.....”

Right said (Sir) Fred - it's a hole new crisis

Those readers old enough to remember Bernard Cribbens and his song about men trying to dig a hole and then giving up. might pause to reflect on how it all ended. After many attempts to dig said hole, the lads abandoned it. In the lyrics the line was: Right said Fred, let's have another cuppa tea and then go home. Or in Gordon’s case, lets go to the White House.

The hole gets deeper; Lord Myners says he knew something but not everything about the pension deal. Yet Harriet Harman says the government will seek legal action to stop Sir Fred getting the full whack. Something m' learned friends think might be hard to deliver. But that doesn’t matter because apparently the case is not scheduled for Court Number One at the Old Bailey but at the court of public opinion. Presumably it’s the one across the road in the pub.

Storm in a coffee cup

It is a sign of the times that nearly eighty years ago, as depression swept the western world, the British Empire or what remained of it sat down, brewed a nice cup of tea then tried to figure what went wrong.

Today as the greatest minds in Europe plus our own Prime Minister prepare for the April G20 summit, the true state of the British economy is brought home, not by an infusion of leaves from Ceylon, but by that standard bearer of globalisation, Starbucks.

NIMBY ... or not in my back yard until “buddy can you spare a loan?” – all currencies accepted

For those with a long memory, you might recall that globalisation was touted as a sort of business panacea; embrace this concept and all will be well with international trade. A keen supporter, surprisingly, turned out to be Bin Laden himself (or perhaps one of the 20 plus people the CIA believe might be him.) He appeared in a video wearing a Taiwanese watch; carrying a Chinese Kalashnikov; speaking into a Japanese camera; and transmitted via a US satellite uplink, espousing his particular version of the Internationale.

Ah, things were so simple then. Now, it is not a good time to be a foreigner in a globalised, UK, world. Workers at nuclear power plants in Sellafield, and Heysham joined oil refinery workers at Lindsey to protest at the employment of non UK nationals, leading Lord Mandelson to proclaim that the strikers were pursuing the “politics of xenophobia”.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood

No. It was not about an attempt to “bury bad news.” Just coincidence that Bank Governor Mervyn King’s gloomy outlook for the UK economy hit the Press on the same day as the Obama speech. His predictions about “a difficult year for us all” had been underlined by the announcement that the Royal Bank of Scotland had made the biggest corporate loss in British history. So could it be that we are about to be rescued by the US 7th Cavalry, also known as the Federal Reserve Bank? The pound, which has fallen in value by 25% since mid-2007, could certainly do with some support.

Obama’s address has been variously described as “not enough like Lincoln at Gettysburg” or “in the great traditions of Paul Revere and the call to arms” (against, you recall, the British invader). So whilst opinion remains divided on the rhetoric, what is clear is that he firmly placed crisis at the top of the agenda. According to one US TV commentator on Pennsylvania Avenue, “he was, in American parlance, telling it like it is.”

Skirts ruffled for the old lady of Threadneedle Street

Sometimes it can seem really hard to get it right. Abraham Lincoln probably came closest when he argued that you can’t please all of the people all of the time. The Bank of England must feel exactly that way at the moment.

Has it judged the crisis correctly or reacted too late?

In the interim, perhaps the most important question is “How good is the analysis and who is in charge, the Bank or the Government?” Last week’s 1.5% cut in the interest rate took us back to 1955. It also took our interest rates below the eurozone for the first time. So panic or shrewd policy? The jury remains divided.