Goodnight Irene

For a reader whose memory stretches back into the 1980s, you might recall the above track from Dexy's Midnight Runners. Over the weekend it was turned into a slogan by some residents of the US East Coast who refused to evacuate in the face of the hurricane. “Come on, Irene!” proclaimed the posters of the protesters. “We can cope” was the sub text.

As the hurricane, downgraded to a Cat 1 storm, moves on the inevitable questions are being asked. This was no Katrina so was there over-reaction by politicians and press?

Quote, Unquote

Economist John Maynard Keynes once said of the business cycle that in the long run all would be well. He added waspishly, "but in the long run we are all dead."

Watching last week's unraveling of the financial system he might have a point ... but this time in the short run. $2.5 trillion has been wiped off global stock exchanges. It has been the worse week in the markets since 2008 and Lehman Brothers.

And the response from government? As another economist J K Galbraith put it, "In the US though power corrupts, the expectation of power paralyzes." Barack Obama has been characterised as being well meaning but ineffectual. Things have hardly been any better in Europe.

A Tale of Three Cities

Handling a crisis relies on understanding the issues, recognizing future impacts and responding appropriately. So who is taking the lead in the Middle East?

No doubt who was first off the blocks in fronting up to the crisis in North Africa and the Middle East. Step forward UK PM David Cameron who flew out from London to take part in what used to be called shuttle diplomacy. First a photo opportunity in Takrir Square, followed by a meeting with the new military caretaker government, then private meetings with some of the protestors who were described as inspirational. Except the Muslim Brotherhood, who seemed not to have been invited.

Oil, what oil?

And hand in hand, on the edge of the sand.
They danced by the light of the moon
- Edward Lear

Last week's White House presser had the chief energy adviser saying the "vast majority of the oil has either been cleaned, skimmed or contained." Not quite the catastrophe the administration had wanted to hang around the necks of "British Petroleum" aka BP. More an alignment with sentiments expressed by Tony Haywood.

NIMBY ... or not in my back yard until “buddy can you spare a loan?” – all currencies accepted

For those with a long memory, you might recall that globalisation was touted as a sort of business panacea; embrace this concept and all will be well with international trade. A keen supporter, surprisingly, turned out to be Bin Laden himself (or perhaps one of the 20 plus people the CIA believe might be him.) He appeared in a video wearing a Taiwanese watch; carrying a Chinese Kalashnikov; speaking into a Japanese camera; and transmitted via a US satellite uplink, espousing his particular version of the Internationale.

Ah, things were so simple then. Now, it is not a good time to be a foreigner in a globalised, UK, world. Workers at nuclear power plants in Sellafield, and Heysham joined oil refinery workers at Lindsey to protest at the employment of non UK nationals, leading Lord Mandelson to proclaim that the strikers were pursuing the “politics of xenophobia”.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood

No. It was not about an attempt to “bury bad news.” Just coincidence that Bank Governor Mervyn King’s gloomy outlook for the UK economy hit the Press on the same day as the Obama speech. His predictions about “a difficult year for us all” had been underlined by the announcement that the Royal Bank of Scotland had made the biggest corporate loss in British history. So could it be that we are about to be rescued by the US 7th Cavalry, also known as the Federal Reserve Bank? The pound, which has fallen in value by 25% since mid-2007, could certainly do with some support.

Obama’s address has been variously described as “not enough like Lincoln at Gettysburg” or “in the great traditions of Paul Revere and the call to arms” (against, you recall, the British invader). So whilst opinion remains divided on the rhetoric, what is clear is that he firmly placed crisis at the top of the agenda. According to one US TV commentator on Pennsylvania Avenue, “he was, in American parlance, telling it like it is.”