Strategic Defense review won't fly!

Every organisation understands the importance of an effective strategy and that one of the key indicators of crises is the failure to meet its stakeholders expectations. As reports from Libya signal a rapidly deteriorating situation where protest dissolves into a civil war, the role of the British Armed forces and the Coalition's defence strategy is brought into stark focus.

Following the strategic review which seems to have been neither strategic or about the UK’s defence can we really feel that the Coalition approach to defence is providing support to businesses trying to deliver export growth to the UK in difficult parts of the world. Think of the emerging risks not just to Libya but to the Arabian Gulf states and North Africa, both during current events and going forward as nations struggle to find stability. How much further can this spread? What other opportunities to resolve old conflicts may arise? Where are the new safe havens for pirates?

A Tale of Three Cities

Handling a crisis relies on understanding the issues, recognizing future impacts and responding appropriately. So who is taking the lead in the Middle East?

No doubt who was first off the blocks in fronting up to the crisis in North Africa and the Middle East. Step forward UK PM David Cameron who flew out from London to take part in what used to be called shuttle diplomacy. First a photo opportunity in Takrir Square, followed by a meeting with the new military caretaker government, then private meetings with some of the protestors who were described as inspirational. Except the Muslim Brotherhood, who seemed not to have been invited.

New Dawn for the Middle East

The rapid spread of protests have caught the policy makers flat footed, with some Western powers praising the Iranian protestors whilst appearing less certain of the position to take with the Bahrainis and rightly delivering outright condemnation of Colonel Gaddaffi, who appears to have declared war on his people.

For the moment people power is flexing its muscles, nowhere more surprising than Libya with over 200 dead; (live on the internet) demonstrations in Morocco; street battles in Teheran; (live on YouTube) continued unrest in Egypt; more protests in Bahrain. What started out as a little local difficulty in Tunisia brought down the president there and eventually ended the 30 year reign of Hosni Mubarack in Egypt, the Arab world's most powerful state.

Oil, what oil?

And hand in hand, on the edge of the sand.
They danced by the light of the moon
- Edward Lear

Last week's White House presser had the chief energy adviser saying the "vast majority of the oil has either been cleaned, skimmed or contained." Not quite the catastrophe the administration had wanted to hang around the necks of "British Petroleum" aka BP. More an alignment with sentiments expressed by Tony Haywood.

Easing off the accelerator

This could be the week of sticky pedals as Toyota and the Bank of England face the truth about what happens when you take your foot off the gas. Has the UK economy reached its cruising speed? And it is now all down hill to an economic recovery?

The question now in everyone's minds is how safe is it to ease off, is the timing right and what happens if it starts to unravel? Will the economy continue to accelerate or will the brakes cut in?

No Grit for the Oyster

No war plan ever survived the first hour of battle, according to Clausewitz. So where was he when you needed him?

The current situation serves to demonstrate how weak our politicians are at handling complex and overlapping issues. To which can now be added problems with forecasting.

Not down to us says the Met Office. All UK contingency planning is based on our five-day forecasts, “which are massively reliable.” Just so. And after that? With increasing regulatory demands ... careful about clearing your own pathway ... and political interference in energy supply, UK systems appear to be suffering from short term vision and a failure to achieve long term infrastructure improvement.

Dancing around the issues

With TV programmers looking to fill the entertainment slot left by Britain’s Got Talent, Prime Minister's Question Time from the Commons may provide the solution. As choreography goes it was a fine display yesterday with ministers manoeuvring around Gordon Brown. A variation of Strictly Come Dancing with partners voting themselves off the dance floor.

If only they moved as quickly to solve the crises they have created. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, “To lose one cabinet minister is unfortunate; to lose two.....”